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Bangkok Biz News
8 Dec 2025
Dave Novosel: Keep an eye on the Netflix deal that will 'change the game' for global media. This battle isn't over yet, and it also has to overcome political obstacles.
While it opens new waters for Netflix , Dave Novosel, senior debt analyst at Gimme Credit, said the deal is also "pricey," with Netflix having to assume nearly $11 billion of Warner Bros. debt.
"Despite the significant amount of valuable content at Warner Bros., Netflix is paying an EBITDA multiple of over 25, which is prohibitively expensive," Novosel said, adding that if Netflix can achieveread more
Globes Israel
7 Dec 2025
Dave Novosel: Netflix's giant acquisition: Market concerns, the big competitor, and how it will work
Dave Novosel, a senior analyst at Gimme Credit, told Fortune that the deal seemed expensive to him, especially considering that Netflix is now taking on nearly $11 billion in debtread more
Barron's
5 Dec 2025
Dave Novosel: The Netflix and Warner Bros. Deal Is Far From a Sure Thing
Gimme Credit Senior Bond Analyst Dave Novosel said Netflix faces “ample competition not only from other streamers but other sources of content such as TikTok, X, Instagram, etcread more
International Financing Review
5 Dec 2025
Dave Novosel: US$59bn Netflix bridge loan sets stage for blockbuster year ahead
“The huge amount of debt that Netflix will need to raise to fund the deal will take leverage to well more than 4x initially,” said Dave Novosel, a senior US investment-grade analyst at Gimme Credit. “Synergies and Ebitda growth should shave that figure over time, although the timeframe is uncertain so investors may need to be patientread more
Fortune
5 Dec 2025
Dave Novosel: Top analyst says Netflix’s $72 billion bet on Warner Bros. isn’t about the ‘death of Hollywood’ at all. It’s really about Google
In a statement emailed to Fortune, Dave Novosel, a Gimme Credit senior bond analyst, said the deal looks expensive to him as well, with Netflix assuming nearly $11 billion of debt.
“While the WBD assets bring an amazing amount of attractive content, NFLX is paying a steep Ebitda multiple of more than 25x, which seems extravagant,” Novosel wrote. Once it reaches the advertised synergies, he addedread more
The Daily Overview
4 Dec 2025
Dave Novosel: Oracle stock plunged 28% last month. Are AI jitters real?
Analyst Dave Novosel at Gimme Credit has flagged the company’s long‑dated borrowings as “unusual” for a technology company, arguing that these long maturities lock Oracle into a capital structure that could become a burden if the AI cycle turns, a concern that has helped fuel the view that Oracle might be the riskiest AI stock in the current marketread more
The Motley Fool
30 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: Oracle Might Be the Riskiest AI Stock as Bubble Fears Grow
Analyst Dave Novosel at Gimme Credit called the long maturities "unusual" for a technology company, since the tech industry changes so rapidlyread more
Barron's
26 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: Nvidia Gets Vocal as Rivals Close the Gap. That Isn’t Not Always a Good Sign.
The company will likely generate $93 billion in free cash flow this year, according to Gimme Credit’s Dave Novosel, with a comfortable enough cushion on its balance sheet to buy back $50 billion in stock if it wanted toread more
Investors Hangout
24 Nov 2025
Evan Mann: End of Penny Production: A New Era for Copper Bonds
As the era of penny production concludes in the U.S., there's a considerable shift in focus towards the copper sector. Experts from Gimme Credit have announced that the copper industry is entering a crucial phase, characterized by a surge in demand and tightening supply. This evolving landscape presents unique opportunities for investors attuned to the shifting economic backdropread more
Reuters
14 Nov 2025
Stu Novick: Oracle bonds sell off as AI investment fuels investor concerns
"There's definitely some selling pressure," said Stu Novick, tech sector credit analyst at corporate bond research firm Gimme Credit.
"The numbers are enormous (and) a lot of people are asking how they are actually making money on this stuffread more
Bloomberg
14 Nov 2025
Jay Cushing: Airline Stocks Face Murky Outlook Following Record US Shutdown
“Airlines will look to mitigate the negative revenue impact from the flight cancellations by cutting their least profitable routes first,” said Jay Cushing, an analyst at Gimme Credit. “But we expect air traffic controller staffing shortages, which were a problem before the shutdown, to remain a bottleneckread more
Barron's
7 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: Meta Stock Is Dragged Further Into Bear Market Territory by Heavy AI Spending
That’s going to pressure profit margins, and cash flows as well, into the coming year, although Gimme Credit analyst Dave Novosel notes that the group’s overall leverage remains low and its 2026 share buybacks shouldn’t be affectedread more
MarketWatch
6 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: The almighty bond market says the AI bubble won’t pop anytime soon
Gimme Credit’s Novosel added that the 50-year maturities are striking for a technology company because it’s a “stretch” to bet on what tech will be relevant decades down the line. While the long duration surprised him, he thinks Alphabet’s management must have sensed “enough investor demand.”
At the same time, Novosel said that with companies like Oracle, Meta and Alphabet issuing so much newread more
Investor's Business Daily
6 Nov 2025
Carol Levenson: 'It's Getting Ugly,' Analyst Says As Pfizer Escalates Its Gloves-Off Fight For Metsera
According to the proxy statement, Pfizer and six other major pharmaceutical firms were involved in early discussions with Metsera. The first nonbinding proposal was in January at $21.13 per share, Gimme Credit's Director of Research Carol Levenson said in a reportread more
Global Economy
5 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: AI investment 'bomb'... US Big Tech will spend $520 billion on data centers next year
Experts believe that rather than being risky, SPVs should be wary of low transparency and low liquidity. Dave Novosel, senior analyst at corporate research agency Gimme Credit, said, "The use of SPVs can be seen as a technical response to accommodate the capital market because the amount of debt is so largeread more
Barron's
3 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: Big AI Companies Are Reviving a Crisis-Era Tool. Wall Street Is Paying Attention.
Dave Novosel, senior analyst at Gimme Credit, thinks the use of SPVs is likely more a reflection of the market having to cope with a big increase in new debt than concern over the health of big-tech balance sheets.
“The hyperscalers and other huge issuers of debt have incredibly strong credit profiles and therefore can easily borrow in the capital markets,” he told Barron’s.
Using an SPV, heread more
Barron's
3 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: Review Preview: AI Fills a Void
Dave Novosel, senior analyst at Gimme Credit, thinks the use of SPVs is likely more a reflection of the market having to cope with a big increase in new debt than concern over the health of big-tech balance sheets.
“The hyperscalers and other huge issuers of debt have incredibly strong credit profiles and therefore can easily borrow in the capital markets,” he told Barron’s.
Using an SPV, heread more
Cailianpress
3 Nov 2025
Dave Novosel: The trillion-dollar AI gamble: Off-balance-sheet "ghost debt" is piling up, with the devil hiding in the SPV?
Currently, regarding the trend of tech giants increasingly using SPVs for financing, Gimme Credit senior analyst Dave Novosel believes that the use of SPVs is more of a strategy to cope with the surge in new debt, rather than a concern about the health of tech giants' balance sheets.
He explained that using a SPV not only achieves debt separation but also isolates the risks of specific projectsread more
MarketWatch
30 Oct 2025
Carol Levenson: Watch out for this big number when Amazon reports results
"To place the financial damage in perspective, note that Amazon ended the second quarter with $58 billion in cash, and in the last twelve months generated $76 billion in operating income," Gimme Credit analyst Carol Levenson wrote earlier this monthread more
Cincinnati Business Courier
29 Oct 2025
Carol Levenson: P&G sees rare decline in market share but trends are changing
P&G didn’t provide context for how often its share declines. But Carol Levenson, director of research at Tarrytown, N.Y.-based bond analysis firm Gimme Credit, wrote in a report, “For the first time in years, P&G lost substantial global value market shareread more
GO Banking Rates
28 Oct 2025
Dave Novosel: Is Buying Apple Stock a No-Brainer?
Other experts are eyeing Apple’s growth. “Despite murmurings of early success for the new iPhone models, consensus estimates call for top-line growth of roughly 4% for the iPhone segment in fiscal 2026,” said Dave Novosel, CFA, a senior bond analyst for Gimme Credit. “That would be lower than the pace likely to be registered for fiscal 2025, which ends this month.”
Novosel also noted that theread more
Barron's
23 Oct 2025
Jay Cushing: Southwest Airlines Stock Is Falling After Earnings Beat. The Changes Don’t Impress Wall Street.
“The new initiatives eliminate key points of differentiation from competitors and risk alienating a segment of the traditional customer base,” Gimme Credit analyst Jay Cushing wrote in a note earlier this month. “But with a structural shift higher in costs (primarily labor) and changing consumer preferences for premium products, Southwest is under pressure to add these incremental revenueread more
Barron's
22 Oct 2025
Jay Cushing: Southwest Airlines Earnings Are Incoming. Time to Show Policy Changes Are Working.
“The new initiatives eliminate key points of differentiation from competitors and risk alienating a segment of the traditional customer base,” Gimme Credit analyst Jay Cushing wrote in a note earlier this month. “But with a structural shift higher in costs (primarily labor) and changing consumer preferences for premium products, Southwest is under pressure to add these incremental revenueread more
Reuters
20 Oct 2025
Jay Cushing: Solid volumes set to underpin US exchange results, bubble chatter in focus
"ICE's third-quarter energy futures and options activity has been weaker than in recent quarters with oil price volatility (Brent contract) falling towards its lowest levels in 18 months," said Gimme Credit analyst Jay Cushingread more
Forbes
18 Oct 2025
Jay Cushing: American Must Explain Why Delta And United Get 100% Of Industry Profit
“I expect American to echo Delta and United talking points, leaning on premium, corporate and international resilience to help offset weaker domestic main cabin demand,” said Jay Cushing, senior bond analyst for Gimme Credit, in an email.
“American skews more heavily domestic (~70%) than DAL and UAL (~55%) so I expect them to highlight leverage to eventual domestic recovery,” Cushing said. “Iread more
Epoch Times
17 Oct 2025
Jay Cushing: Auto-Parts Companies’ Bankruptcies Rattle Credit Markets—What to Know
Gimme Credit senior bond analyst Jay Cushing believes it’s too soon to tell whether the bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands are “canaries in a coal mine” or just idiosyncratic pockets of weakness in deep subprime or one-off cases of potential fraud.
“In either case, these events are likely to lead to incrementally tighter lending standards that could have a cooling effect on creditread more
Fortune
8 Oct 2025
Dave Novosel: Inside PepsiCo’s beverage overhaul: A Gatorade reboot, the $2 billion Poppi buy, and a gut-health play, all under activist scrutiny
Gimme Credit analyst Dave Novosel said in a research note in September that reducing assortment and selling off underperforming assets is the “likely path for the company.”
Gimme Credit also complains that a run of acquisitions in both food and beverages have added $5 billion to PepsiCo’s debt in just the first half of 2025. At the same time, volume sales of many PepsiCo products have fallenread more
MarketWatch
8 Oct 2025
Dave Novosel: AMD’s stock builds on its historic rally as the AI trade heats up again
“We assume the primary rationale behind the deal is that OpenAI is looking to diversify its chip suppliers,” Gimme Credit senior bond analyst Dave Novosel wrote on Wednesday. “Secondly, it is not clear that Nvidia could provide all of the chips OpenAI is demanding. But obviously OpenAI thinks very highly of the Advanced Micro chips, possibly prompting others to use AMD GPUsread more
Quartz
6 Oct 2025
Dave Novosel: 3 OpenAI-impacted stocks to buy right now
“Nvidia has indicated that demand is far outpacing supply, but it is not clear whether the company could have fulfilled an expanded order from OpenAI,” said Dave Novosel, senior bond analyst at Gimme Credit, in Orland Park, Illinois. “The lead time is extensive as the order will not be filled until next year. Furthermore, the warrants provide the opportunity to share in the upside of AMD’s successread more
The Globe and Mail
1 Oct 2025
Dave Novosel: Nvidia and OpenAI Just Upped the Ante in AI. Here's What Investors Should Watch.
In a recent research note shared by Barron's, for example, Dave Novosel, an analyst at credit-researcher Gimme Credit, wrote: Firstly, Nvidia is the clear leader among chip providers, at least for the time being. Secondly, we expect robust demand for AI for the foreseeable future. AI is being employed by virtually every major company. And firms are finding more and more uses for AI in theirread more
Bloomberg
29 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: Mexico’s $12 Billion Deal to Aid Pemex Seen Spurring More P-Caps
The structure can provide refinancings to businesses facing tight credit conditions, said Gimme Credit senior credit analyst Franck Bekaert.
Given the demand for Mexico’s deal — it was two times oversubscribed, according to the government — the country could tap the structure again, Bekaert said. “Considering the company’s needs and the successful outcome of the issue, Pemex is likely to issue aread more
Barron's
26 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Nvidia Stock Has Avoided the Worst of the AI Selloff. It Will Try to Rise Again Today.
“While the circular accusation is true to a large extent, currently the demand for Nvidia chips seems nearly insatiable,” wrote Dave Novosal, an analyst at credit-research firm Gimme Credit, in a research note on Friday.
“Firstly, Nvidia is the clear leader among chip providers, at least for the time being. Secondly, we expect robust demand for AI for the foreseeable future. AI is being employedread more
IFR News
26 Sep 2025
Kim Noland: Investors welcome Royal Caribbean back to high-grade market
"[Royal Caribbean] now has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry and has been on a continuing credit profile improvement voyage for some time," Kim Noland, a director of high-yield research at Gimme Credit, wrote on September 22.
“We believe these forecasted 2026 credit measures may provide the company with a sufficient cushion to weather at least a moderate cyclical downturn at aread more
Benzinga
26 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: 4 Copper Stocks To Consider Buying For The Late 2025 Rally
“SCCO continues to deliver strong operational and financial performance while executing its ambitious investment program without adversely affecting its credit metrics,” said Franck Bekaert, senior emerging markets analyst at Gimme Credit. “The company’s EBITDA margins of 56% are one of the highest in its peer group. The U.S. exports represent 10% of its revenue, while Asia and Mexico representread more
Barron's
25 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Oracle’s Debt Sale Is Loved by Bond Markets. But One Analyst Says It’s Time to Sell the Stock.
Gimme Credit analyst Dave Novosel sees that outlay dragging free cash flow, the lifeblood of a bond investor seeking coupon and principal repayment, to -$16 billion this yearread more
Recycling Today
25 Sep 2025
Evan Mann: Cliffs poised for turnaround, says bond rating agency
The analysis by Senior Bond Analyst Evan Mann says the Cleveland-based iron and streel producer, which also owns metals recycling firm Ferrous Processing & Trading, is beginning to benefit from higher volume steel shipments, an increase in averaging steel selling prices and lower operating costs.
Even in its money-losing second quarter, writes Mann, “Results remained on track to continueread more
Cincinnati Business Courier
25 Sep 2025
Carol Levenson: Kroger analysts weigh in with positive take on outlook for company and its stock
Carol Levenson, analyst at bond research firm Gimme Credit, also looks at Kroger’s prospects in a positive light. “There remains considerable uncertainty regarding strategy and financial policies, but the business is an attractively stable (if low margin) one with little tariff or macro risk,” Levenson wrote in a reportread more
MarketWatch
25 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Why Oracle’s ‘jumbo’ AI-fueled bond deal is so unusual
“We’ve seen 40-year deals, but they’re typically with companies with staying power,” such as Coca-Cola Co. said Dave Novosel, a senior investment analyst at Gimme Credit. Those sort of maturities are “unusual” with technology, because “who knows who will be around in 40 years?” Novosel told MarketWatchread more
Rumbo Minero
23 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: Codelco mulls new bond issuance for US$1.5 billion amid copper rally
"For the issuer, the current market environment presents an attractive opportunity to initiate a new bond trade," said Franck Bekaert, senior analyst at Gimme Credit, noting that investors prioritize production prospects and strategic partnerships.
"Codelco's bond spreads are currently too tight compared to those of its peers," Bekaert warned, specifying that doubts persist about the miner'sread more
BNE IntelliNews
23 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: Chile copper giant Codelco eyes bond sale as output slows
Codelco last issued $1.5bn in bonds in January, split between 10 and 30-year maturities. Both tranches are now trading about 30 basis points below their original pricing, as reported by Reuters. Franck Bekaert, senior analyst at Gimme Credit, told Reuters that the current market backdrop offers “a compelling opportunity” for a new issue, although he warned that spreads appear “too tight comparedread more
WorldMr.net
23 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: Rising copper prices and expectations of interest rate cuts have opened a financing window for Codelco
Franck Bekaert, a senior analyst at investment research firm Gimme Credit, said the current market environment presents "a compelling opportunity" for Codelco to initiate a new bond deal.
Beckaert is also cautious about whether the company can quickly resume production growth and improve its credit indicators, despite the current tight bond spreads. However, the strategies Codelco is takingread more
Bloomberg
22 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: Codelco Gets a Pass on Mine Woes as Bond-Selling Window Opens Up
“For the issuer, the current market environment presents a compelling opportunity to initiate a new bond transaction,” said Franck Bekaert, senior analyst at the investment research company Gimme Credit.
“The spreads for Codelco bonds are currently too tight compared to its peer group,” Bekaert said. “I remain cautious about the company’s ability to restore production growth and enhance itsread more
Reuters
22 Sep 2025
Stu Novick: Snap hits highest level since gloomy August report
The move could be driven by uncertainty surrounding SNAP rival TikTok, according to Gimme Credit analyst Stu Novick.
Snap could come under pressure from its competitors. It must continue to invest in innovation to compete with large social media platforms such as TikTok," says Novickread more
Tech Space 2.0
22 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: NVIDIA’s $4 Trillion AI Revolution: How the Chipmaker Overtook Apple and Microsoft
“Concentration of revenue among such a small group of customers does present a significant risk,” acknowledged Dave Novosel of Gimme Credit, “but these customers have bountiful cash on hand… and are expected to spend lavishly on data centers over the next couple of yearsread more
Benzinga
19 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: PepsiCo Grapples With Soaring Debt, Negative Cash Flow: 'Nice Activist' Isn't Enough, Says Gimme Credit
Free cash flow was negative in 2022 and 2024 and is projected to be less than $300 million this year—a fraction of the $7.6 billion it expects to pay in dividends. Gimme Credit projects this combination of higher debt and weaker earnings will push PepsiCo’s leverage to 3.0 times its EBITDA by year-end, up from 2.6x.
Operating margins have also declined in the last two quarters due to higherread more
Benzinga
19 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: How To Earn $500 A Month From PepsiCo Stock
PepsiCo shares closed slightly lower on Thursday. The company is struggling with deteriorating financial health, marked by rising debt and weak cash flow, and the recent arrival of activist investor Elliott Investment Management is unlikely to provide a near-term solution, according to a research note from Gimme Creditread more
Investor's Business Daily
18 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Wall Street Sees Oracle Taking Run at Cloud's 'Big Three' With AI Growth Targets
"The glaring negative with this spectacular growth is that Oracle needs to boost capital spending to satisfy the seemingly insatiable demand," Gimme Credit analyst Dave Novosel said in a recent analyst note. He expects the company will need as much as $13 billion in debt over the next "few quarters."
"Yet we still forecast a decline in leverage because of the considerably higher EBITDA," Novoselread more
Forbes Turkey
17 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Oracle's expensive AI transformation
Gimme Credit's Dave Novosel estimates that Oracle may have to take on up to $13 billion in new debt over the next few quarters. However, he also predicts that the company's phenomenal growth will reduce this indebtedness over time. Oracle's expensive AI move will likely pay offread more
The Wall Street Journal
17 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Oracle’s Expensive AI Makeover Is Worth It
Dave Novosel of Gimme Credit estimates that Oracle will need to add as much as $13 billion in debt over the next few quarters. But he forecasts the company’s extraordinary growth should offset this, leading to lower leverage in future yearsread more
Barron's
17 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: U.S.-China TikTok Deal Is a Cash Flow Story for Oracle. Here’s Why.
“The glaring negative with this spectacular growth is that Oracle needs to boost capital spending to satisfy the seemingly insatiable demand,” said Gimme Credit analyst Dave Novosel in a recent note assessing the company’s debt position.
Novosel sees the increase in capital spending, a 65% boost from year-ago levels, taking up around half of the group’s overall revenue. That likely means freeread more
Milano Finanza
17 Sep 2025
Saurav Sen: China's stock price surges, with Baidu hitting a 20% high after a strategic AI deal.
"Recent capital allocation moves show Baidu is making a decisive shift toward AI," commented Saurav Sen, analyst at Gimme Credit. Despite strong stock market gains—the stock has gained 67% since the beginning of the year—Baidu reported a decline in revenue in the second quarter, penalized by weakness in its advertising business and the still-limited returns on its AI investments. (All rightsread more
Barron's
16 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Meta Stock Rises. This Is Its New AI Product.
Reality Labs could book a loss of up to $20 billion this year, according to analysts at credit-research firm Gimme Credit, up from $17.7 billion in 2024read more
CNBC
16 Sep 2025
Saurav Sen: China’s Baidu soars 16% to hit 2-year highs amid positive signs for its AI business
Gimme Credit Senior Bond Analyst, Saurav Sen, said in a report last week that Baidu’s recent capital allocations have revealed that the company is making an “all-in AI pivotread more
T&D World
16 Sep 2025
Carol Levenson: California Lawmakers Pass Bill That Will Add $18B to Wildfire Reserves
Carol Levenson, director of research at Gimme Credit, said the new insurance fund reduces the financial risks to the three utilities “in important ways” and “in a financially manageable fashion” and said it is likely to be positive for Edison’s credit profile. The only negative, she added in a Sept. 15 note, is that Edison’s contribution has been raised to the same level as PG&E’s. The latter hadread more
Carbon Credit
11 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: Anglo American and Teck Create a $50B Copper Giant to Fuel the Clean Energy Revolution
Franck Bekaert, senior bond analyst at Gimme Credit, pointed out that Anglo Teck will emerge as a leading copper producer with a diversified portfolio that includes iron ore and zincread more
Guru
10 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: 'Copper Dinosaur' is born... Promoting the merger of Anglo American and Texresources
"This merger will provide significant value and growth opportunities," said Franck Bekaert, senior bond analyst at credit rating agency Gimme Credit, "and the new entity will emerge as the world's top copper producer with iron ore and zinc assets, along with six copper minesread more
Quartz
9 Sep 2025
Dave Novosel: Trump gets Uncle Sam into the semiconductor business: 3 takeaways
“The deal is indicative of President Trump’s activism, and we expect him to engage in similar moves,” said Dave Novosel, senior investment analyst at New York City-based Gimme Credit. “In fact, he’s already gotten involved with U.S. Steel and Nvidia.”
Novosel believes the government’s investment in Intel infringes on the capitalistic culture that has worked so well in the U.S., but may be aread more
Australia Azzet
9 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: US$53bn Anglo American, Teck M&A world's second-biggest
"We have a positive outlook on this merger, as it is expected to deliver significant value and growth," Gimme Credit senior bond analyst Franck Bekaert saidread more
Mining.com
9 Sep 2025
Franck Bekaert: Anglo American, Teck strike $53B merger in decade’s top deal
“We have a positive outlook on this merger, as it is expected to deliver significant value and growth,” Gimme Credit’s senior bond analyst, Franck Bekaert, said in a note. “The new company will emerge as one of the world’s leading copper producers, boasting a diversified portfolio of six copper production sites, along with iron ore and zinc operationsread more
Business Recorder
9 Sep 2025
Alexandre Dray: Boycotts dent Coca-Cola sales in Pakistan, Turkiye: report
“Most people who wanted to boycott Western brands have already done so,” and consumers are likely to return when the conflict ends, said Alex Dray, director of emerging markets research at Gimme Credit. “Coca-Cola’s strong brand recognition means there’s little risk of a widespread shift to local brandsread more